By Janelle Cass
Posted: November 12, 2024
The 2044 Comprehensive Plan update for Edmonds calls for 9,069 new housing units, based on an assumed future household size of just 1.4 people per new unit of housing, which would bring the citywide average household occupancy down to 2.11. This assumption risks causing the city to overshoot its true housing needs and invites the kind of overdevelopment that could significantly strain city resources and negatively impact the environment.
Across national, state and county levels, household sizes are indeed decreasing, largely due to older adults choosing to age in place, often as single occupants. The Washington State Department of Commerce has projected a gradual reduction in household sizes — from an average of 2.67 in 2020 to around 2.47 by 2044 — reflecting these demographic shifts. Edmonds, with an average household size of 2.29, is already well below this anticipated 2044 county average. In fact, the Edmonds household average is second lowest in the county; Index being the lowest. Our low rate is likely due to having a large older population, with 23% of residents over age 65, compared to the county average of 14%. In the coming 20 years, however, we can expect a natural shift in demographics as the city’s aging population declines, gradually making room for younger families and new residents. This shift could foreseeably increase household occupancy as family-sized households replace many single-occupant homes. This organic generational turnover will naturally balance household sizes and occupancy rates, suggesting that Edmonds will meet future housing demands without needing the excessive number of new units currently proposed.
Of course, supporting responsible growth and doing our part to accommodate population increases is important. Edmonds has consistently met or exceeded previous Growth Management Act (GMA) goals, demonstrating our commitment to sensible regional planning. However, for the sake of our community’s environment and character, we must ensure that our future growth is based on realistic, localized data. Using Edmonds’ existing household size of 2.29 as the basis for future projections — along with the Department of Commerce’s recommendation of a 6% vacancy rate — would indicate a need for approximately 6,070 new housing units, not 9,069 (actually more with the buffers outlined in the plan). This approach better reflects Edmonds’ current demographic profile and projected needs.
If Edmonds proceeds with the inflated target of 9,069 units, the consequences could be significant. Developers may seize on these projections to push for lucrative densification projects. Higher-density construction threatens our green spaces, risking the loss of mature trees and our urban canopy—elements critical for managing stormwater, reducing climate impact, and preserving Edmonds’ natural character.
Please join me in urging the Edmonds City Council and the mayor to reassess these assumptions and conduct a reality check on what housing growth is truly appropriate for Edmonds. Rather than rushing to meet overly ambitious targets, city leaders should, at a minimum, draft a formal letter of concern to the state and county, calling for these growth targets to better reflect real trends in household size and growth changes specific to Edmonds. Taking this step will ensure that Edmonds continues to do its part accommodating growth responsibly, while also protecting our natural environment and preserving our quality of life for current and future residents.
— By Janelle Cass